Bitcoin risks repeating the 2022 bearish scenario and facing a decline if it fails to consolidate above the key $101,000 level, according to experts at the CryptoQuant platform.
Although Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 2025, from $80,500 to $97,900, this is a “bear market rally” and not the start of a sustainable recovery, analysts say.
“A similar scenario unfolded in 2022 during the previous bear market. Bitcoin’s price fell 27% after crossing the 365-day moving average from below, then rose 47% and then rebounded from the 365-day moving average,” CryptoQuant noted.
Fundamental and technical indicators currently point to a continuation of the bear market. An additional worrying sign is the increasing Bitcoin inflow into crypto exchanges. Seven-day inflows reached 39,000 BTC—the highest level since November 25, 2025.
The increased influx of cryptocurrency onto trading platforms is traditionally seen as a sign of increasing selling pressure. Retail investors are transferring assets to exchanges for sale, which could negatively impact the Bitcoin price in the short term, experts concluded.
Earlier, analysts from the on-chain platform Glassnode stated that the pressure from Bitcoin bulls on the asset’s price is weakening, and their fate now depends on two factors: an influx of capital into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased demand on the spot market.
