Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has said he supports the practice of placing money bets on the actions of the terrorist group Hezbollah and other participants in the Middle East standoff. The option recently appeared on the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket.
The bets are on the possible actions of the parties to the conflict in the Middle East: what the Israeli army will do in Lebanon when the fire ceases, whether larger-scale military actions will begin this year.
Some market participants were concerned that such predictions “turn a military conflict into a football match on which you can bet.” Vitalik Buterin said that from a trader’s perspective, Polymarket is a betting site, and from a viewer’s perspective, it’s a news site. According to the Ethereum co-founder, it’s not about making money from bad things, but about creating an environment where words have consequences — without regard for government or corporate censors.
“There are all sorts of people on Twitter and the internet making malicious or inaccurate predictions about conflicts. So being able to see first-hand the opinions of people who are estimating a 2% or 50% probability of an event is a valuable feature. It will help people stay sane,” Buterin commented.
Zach Rynes, a representative of the Chainlink oracle provider, expressed concerns about the development of a prediction market related to assassinations, which could see people take real-world actions that threaten life or public order in order to achieve a certain outcome. Rynes believes that any prediction market related to an influential event could trigger real-world actions, even if that was not the intention.
Buterin has vowed to oppose such markets. The Ethereum co-founder suggested that prediction platforms are still far from reaching such scale. However, to avoid possible negative consequences, Polymarket should introduce restrictions.
“For me, the red line is whether the market acts as an incentive to do bad things so that people can trade on inside information,” Buterin explained.
In September, Buterin spoke out in favor of individual staking, saying it could improve blockchain decentralization and reduce the likelihood of “51% attacks.” More recently, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson called Buterin a dictator, who Hoskinson says is the foundation of Ethereum.
